AoS Homework: Intel

Introduction

Hello again and thanks again for joining Team Sparkle on another installment of the AoS Operations series. Previously we examined the first two steps of the Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (IPOE) and how they apply to your calculus as a commander in AoS. Today we'll continue discussing another part of the process and build a quick example of what it might look like from beginning to end. I do not recommend you actually perform IPOE on every single Army in the game (because I probably will later). You already do this in your head and after reading this, you will see that it is merely a process to ensure you are accounting for every facet of info you can. Rather, I want to walk you through this framework so you can have a new perspective to understand your opponent and their list. We'd love to hear your feedback and have you give us a follow so you can stay plugged into our analytic adventure and to share with your gaming buddies so we can all become better commanders. Now, without any further delay, let's get to the matter.

IPOE Step 3: Evaluate the Threat

Having completed steps to define the operational environment and how the battlefield effects will impact our operations, we narrow our focus on the enemy. Doctrinally this is the process that "determines threat forces capabilities and the doctrinal principles and TTP (Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures) threat forces prefer to employ," ATP 2-01.3, p.5-1. For our use, evaluating the threat is understanding the rules that govern how it can operate and understanding how those capabilities can be used to shape the battlefield. The Army categorizes the types of threats further into regular, irregular, and hybrid threats. This is a useful device to understand in the broadest terms how an army in AoS operates. Regular forces are the "honest" approaches to combat, not relying a complex mechanics or tricks. Irregular forces do not tend to fight their opponents face to face, they degrade their abilities, use unconventional engagement tactics, and tend to fight in a more asymmetric fashion. Hybrid forces are simply armies that can do a bit of both. 

With the most basic categorization completed, we get to the "How to do it" portion of the doctrine and we have our first diagram:

Identify Threat Characteristics

In figure 5-1 we can see several factors to consider. We'll focus on the ones most relevant to our discussion with some in-game examples.

Composition

Figure 5-2 illustrates the composition, aka the list your opponent takes to the match. This is an organizational chart for a Mechanized Infantry Brigade, a common maneuver element. It has several capabilities from direct fire (shooting an enemy you can see), indirect fire (shooting an enemy you can't see with artillery), and support roles (Air Defense, Engineering, Maintenance, Transportation, and Chemical Warfare). Let's not get too into the weeds of this Mechanized Infantry Brigade, just suffice to say that this tells the commander how many of what resources the enemy has and the associated capabilities of those weapons and support systems. Instead, let's see how we can translate this to an AoS list so we can understand the capabilities and limitations.

Here we've repurposed the organizational chart to understand an Ogor Mawtribes Meatfist list. This provides the framework for the composition so we can build on it later.

Disposition

As we examined in the previous installment, how the threat forces are arrayed can give you many indications. Doctrinally, we use this as a means of identifying what tactic or maneuver the enemy may execute based on where specific elements of their forces are. In the previous organizational chart, we can identify a common power-pair in the infantry screen Gnoblars and the self propelled artillery, the Ironblaster. For your opponent in this scenario to use this significant points investment properly, they need to have an effective firing lane. If they deploy in such a way that they have a clear line of sight and range to a unit (even better yet if they measure to one of your units that tells you their intentions exactly), it gives you a hint on what their target priority looks like. If they set it up more defensively so they can punish you from contesting an objective, that tells you another course of action they may be taking. The point is, the enemy's disposition in conjunction with their composition tells a story. The homework you can do is understanding how those elements piece together so you can understand the significance of that story and give it a not-so-happy conclusion.

Strength

Assessing a unit's strength is a matter of understanding what it is most effective at. There is a significant incentive in Warhammer to take the most efficient lists as is possible. In this way, your opponent is telling you their intentions. If you stare across the board at two units of Ironguts and a Frostlord, they probably intend to smash you Dryads to splinters and stick Durthu's Greenwood Gladius up his own trunk. Further, what is the unit's loadout? Are there any potential aspects you can exploit such as rend or damage reduction? Pile these considerations onto the previous two while we continue.

Combat Effectiveness

A threat's Combat Effectiveness is a characteristic you should frequently re-analyze. As you inflict casualties, the enemy will logically become a less effective fighting force. Fewer models making attacks means less damage and fewer models to stand on objectives. On the other hand, untouched units that have combat power remaining are clearly more valuable to your opponent. This dynamic characteristics helps you keep spinning the plates that matter and let the less important ones fall to the ground. Don't try to address every single problem. Exterminate the most important problems with extreme prejudice.  

Doctrine and Tactics

Because of our glorious and beloved friend HeyWoah (easily the best AoS content creator in this author's humble opinion), we know that Ogors want one thing and it's disgusting. Always be charging. Let's put this into context of our list example. We can see this Meatfist list (say that 8 times fast) has several minimum strength units (MSU) instead of reinforcing. This in conjunction with what we know about the Ogor tactics tells us that the enemy commander wants to create many opportunities to inflict mortal wounds on the charge. If this player can charge in all of their Ogor infantry and the Stonehorn, they will inflict roughly 17 mortal wounds on average. That damage potential is massive and a wise Ogor commander will exploit it at every opportunity. 

Create or Refine Threat Models

With these characteristics in mind, we can begin to create our threat models. A good way to imagine this to place the army in the previous example in a giant parking lot. We'll call it an additional realm, uhh, Lotqshy. There are no terrain features in this realm, just pure flat. We have two outputs to make:

Threat Template

The Threat Template is what we might consider the "playbook" of what an army does. We'll construct a specific example below, but this is the set of techniques that a commander uses to win the game. They can employ different strategies, each which would serve a different purpose. As a parallel, we'll use a mobile defense threat template with the Ogor list to see what this looks like.

This is a very rough example of a threat template that you can use to quickly visualize what this list wants to do. It wants you to move toward the unit of Gnoblars (performing the guard tactical task, preventing direct fire with the ironblaster and main body of the army, i.e. charging) so the main source of damage, the charging MSUs can be committed to the decisive operation. Several of the Ogor book battle tactics depend on being able to charge and get into combat, so this commander wants to set up situations to accomplish those battle tactics and get points. The Firebelly, depicted with the Air Defense Artillery icon, exists in this list to provide ther wholly within 12" bubble to hand out -1 to hit penalties, making the army more survivable. The Slaughtermaster exists to issue commands and hand out buffs to troops, so it is going to be in a position where it can be within range to do so. Finally, we have the armor, the big thicc boi. The Frostlord on Stonehorn exists as a counterattack element to commit to the fight when the commander sees a gap they can exploit. The model's great mobility, durability, and monstrous rampage makes it a terrific piece to capitalize on gaps the opponent leaves open. 

The subsequent steps of IPOE results in the output of the High-Value Target List (HVTL). This is typically broken down yet further (are you seeing a trend here?) to be evaluated by phase. In some parts of the battle, a commanders assets are more valuable than others. This illustrates how at different points of the battle, the most important piece to a player can change. Let's say you're about to take your turn and you are considering what to do. Is your opponent's only remaining battle tactic Surround and Destroy (GHB 23-24)? If you can remove one of the three units they will have the chance to select the next turn they have

to choose from, you can deny them a battle tactic. These sorts of insights are hard to keep in mind at times when you are hyper-focused on destroying the most damaging unit your opponent has. Sometimes that unit is merely a distraction. Remove yourself from the immediate, tactical level, focus on the broader, strategic level. The game is won with points, not by killing models (even though sometimes this gives you points). 

In our next installment, we will perform the last step of the IPOE process, which mostly is a matter of molding the "parking lot" scenario that was the Threat Template to the area of operations (how does the terrain influence maneuver, disposition of troops, etc.). We hope that you've enjoyed the installment today and that you're starting to see the house start to form together around the framework we've been building. Remember, we won't be painstakingly drawing these plans on sheets of acetate while our opponent impatiently taps their foot. We will have this in the back of our minds as a means of systematically assessing the ever-changing battlefield so we can make the best decisions and retain the initiative. Thanks again for the read. If you've enjoyed this, we'd love if you give this blog a follow, a share, or just tell someone you know something you've learned. Stay Sparkly.