Threat Analysis: Nighthaunt Part 1

 Introduction

This blog has demonstrated the methodology of performing Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield in more generic terms. Today, we will perform these steps while focusing on a single matchup: Nighthaunt. We will focus solely on a part of Step 3 of today's process, "Evaluate the Threat," The first two steps would be tailored to your specific army and "Operational Environment," the battleplans you would play at a tournament or game you select. Check out the previous entries for more on that.

Evaluate the Threat

You can perform this step outside of game time. In fact, I recommend you do. We will use a Nighthaunt list that recently won a GT for the following steps. 

The first substep is to classify this threat as Regular, Irregular, or Hybrid. Regular threats are more straightforward, not using teleporting shenanigans or methods to retreat and charge. Irregular threats will avoid head-on fights with unique abilities that allow them to engage in asymmetric warfare. Hybrid threats simply do some of both. I would typify NH as an Irregular threat because of their army-wide abilities to charge in combat, fly, and in the case of this list, run and charge with a unit as well as deliver a deepstrike capability with Awlrach. 

Composition

Most of this is spelled out in the opponent's list. We have three regiments that we can expect to be reconstituted into task-organized units. This process will help us determine the enemy's capabilities and limitations. 

This is the basis for symbology we will use (derived from the NATO Joint Military Symbology standard). We doctrinally would also be considering where the enemy is (the Disposition) but we won't know significant details of that until deployment, and subsequent steps will better illustrate that stage of the game.

Threat Files

Next let us combine the Composition with the existing rules for the associated units to make up our Threat Data Files. These would normally include unit strength, combat effectiveness, doctrine and tactics, and many other characteristics. For our purposes, what this means is an understanding of how the units the enemy has taken in their list will interact with the army's rules. 

Take a look at the warscrolls, spell and prayer lores, artefacts and heroic traits. What sort of synergies do they grant? How much added value do these selections bring to the table? This will help inform your assessment of the enemy's capabilities and limitations. 

Create or Refine Threat Models

"Threat models accurately portray how threat forces normal execute operations and how they have reacted to similar situations in the past," (ATP 2-01.3, section 5-43). My old instructor told me to imagine this as "if the enemy deployed into a giant parking lot that was 100 x 100 km, how would they arrange their forces to do an operation?" Another good point here: once you've created the Threat Model, you'll just be refining it as the meta changes. 

One of the products we'd generate in this step of IPOE is the Threat Template. This product can be as simple or as complex as you'd like to get. A quick napkin sketch of a plan would suffice. You can derive some insights based on the maximum ranges of certain unit abilities. For example: we can see a strong power-pair of Awlrach and Bladegheists. With the season rule and Awlrach's deepstrike ability, this unit can rapidly insert 7" from their target and deliver a precise and devastating blow. This won't be an option for the player if the Bladegheists are not wholly within 12" of Awlrach. 

We also know Reikenor can be a pretty potent spellcaster with the Corpsecandle ability. The strong debuff and recursion spells in the NH lore both have a range of wholly within 12", so we can make an assessment that Reikenor will be positioned to cast those spells, likely on a unit the enemy wants to make more durable and retain board control. 

The primary damage dealer would be the Bladegheists but the Hexwraiths and Harridans are no slouches either. Because NH is so mobile, most units can have multiple roles as screens, prospectors, and even anvils. The unit selection here looks to commit the Bladegheists as the decisive operation whose mission is to destroy High-Value Targets (HVTs). Harridans are likely tasked with seizing and securing key terrain and objectives as they have been reinforced and are therefore more wound dense than the Hexwraiths, and they are stronger when they attack wounded units. The Hexwraiths are likely going to be employed as prospectors, performing secondary objectives and canalizing enemy forces into the most damaging units in the NH army.

Finally, we know that the Krulghast Cruciator is reducing damage for NH units wholly within 12". We can expect to see this protection piece located where it can confer the greatest benefit to the maximum number of units. Possibly this would pair even better with the Hexwraiths as they are a wound-dense unit. Combining all of these together, we might have a Threat Template that would look like this:

This won't look like much at the moment, but remember, we will massage it to the terrain and the mission to give us a better idea of how the enemy would prefer to employ their forces. Their main command and protection pieces will look to keep their 12" ranges in a position they can influence the units that will retain objectives. Their fastest units are moving up the flanks as prospectors and disrupting your secondary operations. Awlrach and the Bladegheists are the exploitation force, looking for that opportunity to deliver maximum damage to an exposed unit with the 7" deepstrike. 

Conclusion

Today we laid the foundation that will inform our ability to make a Threat Template, a tool that is agnostic to terrain and other operational environment factors to look at the enemy's composition and other threat characteristics. Next post we'll look at creating a high-value target list and seeing how these steps feed into our final product: a situation or SITEMP. Again, these can be drastically simplified. These are illustrative examples so you can see the underlying logic and process and tailor it to your needs. Until next time, be kind, play some Warhammer, and stay Sparkly.